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Posisi Hutang Indonesia 2010/2011

Setinggi Gunung Hilmalaya, Seluas Lautan Pacific.

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Lihatlah jumlah angka nol-nya….sepanjang jalan raya dari Jakarta ke Bandung!

 

Nglihat nolnya saja udah pusing…, apalagi melunasinya!

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Kapan hutang-hutang ini akan dilunasi? Sampai anak cucu dan sampai generasi keberapa hutang itu akan bisa lepas dari beban APBN; lepas dari pundak dan tidak lagi mencekik leher bangsa Indonesia?

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Apakah kebijaksanaan Pemerintah Pusat hanya bisa tambal sulam sekedar memanage hutang-hutang itu; kalau tidak hutang sama Paul untuk bayar Peter, ya ganti utang sama achong-achong didalam negeri untuk bayar Peter di luar negeri? 

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Lihat saja buktinya.

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Dulu zaman Orde Baru sebelum tahun 1997/1998, hutang dalam negeri hampir tidak ada atau kecil sekali, karena regime Orde Baru, selalu pinjam Paul untuk bayar Peter, termasuk IMF.

 

Sekarang dizaman REFORMASI; zamanya Boediono, Sri Mulyani (pentolan BI dan Menkeu) dan Presiden SBY, hutang sama Peter dibayar dengan meminjam hutang dari achong-achong dengan menjual SUN (Surat Utang Negara) dan SBN (Surat Berharga Negara), menjadikan hutang dalam negeri besarnya melampui hutang luar negeri hanya dalam waktu 12 tahun.

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Hutang sama IMF dilunasi dengan menciptakan hutang baru dalam negeri yang jumlahnya 2 kali lipat dari jumlah hutang di luar negeri yang dilunasi. Apa bedanya?

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Hutang luar negeri sama anggota PARIS CLUB (18 negara) saja akan memakan waktu 40 tahun….?

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Belum lagi hutang-hutang luar negeri Indonesia dengan negara-negara lain dan institusi dunia, seperti :ADB (Asian Development Bank), JBIC (Japan Bank for International Corporation) dan juga sama World Bank atau Bank Dunia. Itu baru hutang Luar negeri.

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Terus kapan hutang DALAM NEGERI akan bisa dilunasi yang jumlahnya JAUH lebih besar dari hutang LUAR NEGERI?

 

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Link ke hutang DALAM NEGERI:

 

http://www.dmo.or.id/dmodata/5Statistik/1Posisi_Utang/2Posisi_SUN/Outstanding_per_29_April_2010.pdf

 

 

Link ke hutang LUAR NEGERI:

 

http://www.dmo.or.id/content.php?section=46

 

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 Apa kata Sri Mulyani tentang hutang-hutang Indonesia:

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYngTg4zcpo&feature=related

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nolyjq7oP-c&feature=related

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqGPoy0HJp0&NR=1

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fp6CGZ6XuE8&NR=1

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8zErz0F_t8&feature=related

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KICcZhGxec&feature=related

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVkZjcKtxSk&feature=related

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-wu-mWYYYY&feature=related

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Tangganpan atas interview Sri Mulyani:

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The false notion entertained by Sri Mulyani and SBY’s administration:

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The current notion that is being entertained by SBY’ administration, especially, by Sri Mulyani to suggest that the Indonesia’s massive debts are still 30% of GDP and the debts payment on interest and principle only 2% of the GDP are thus acceptable is very ridiculous and unacceptable! Why?

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These debts have entangled Indonesia’s ability to elevate much of the poverty, massive unemployment and provide much of the needed funds to fix the broken infrastructures and public services. These massive debts must be reduced and eliminated. We shall stop entertaining such a silly notion.

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Prior to 1997/1998, Indonesia’s domestic debts were virtually zero, insignificant or, very small. Now, Indonesia’s domestic debts are even bigger than foreign debts just within the last 12 years.

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To suggest that it is okay for Indonesia to sustain such a massive debt just because the payment is still within 30% of GDP and its interest payment is still under 2% of GDP is simply irresponsible and immoral, knowing how many Indonesia people are still living under poverty; living under $2 a day!

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Menkeu Sri Mulyani continues to insist openly and publicly that Indonesia’s massive debts are within safety ratio and thus manageable!

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She cited that most developed countries like Japan, USA and European countries such as: Germany, French and United Kingdom have debts. India that has economic growth of 6% also has debts 6% to 7% of its GDP. Even Japan has debts reaching up to 150% of its GDP.

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European Countries such as: French, Germany and United Kingdom, have deficit between 6% to 7% of their GDP. United States of America has the largest debts in the world and has deficit at 9% of its GDP. 

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Meanwhile Indonesia with 5,000 trillion Rupiah in GDP, her debts is under 30%, with deficit under 3% or less making Indonesia the healthiest country on earth after China and India. Is it really?

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What flaw with Menkeu Sri Mulyani’s public statements is her attempt to manipulate and to corrupt the information by distorting the economical facts about those developed countries such as: Japan, USA and European countries, such as: French, Germany and United Kingdom. There are fundamental economical differences between those developed countries and Indonesia, which are:

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A). Japan, USA and European Countries such as: England, Germany and France have large and solid Domestic Equity Market, while Indonesia does not!

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B). Japan, USA and European Countries such as: England, Germany and France have humongous Market Capitalization, while Indonesia does not!

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Those 2 things distinct and separate between those developed countries and Indonesia in terms of financial and economical outlook in the eyes of world creditors such as IMF, World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC).

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So from the stand point of Domestic Equity Market and Market Capitalization alone, comparing Indonesia with those developed countries, USA, Japan and other European Countries such as: French, United Kingdom, and Germany does not make sense and simply incomparable.

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Those develop countries: Japan, USA and some European countries even though they have higher debt ratio over 150% from their GDP and their deficit as high as 9%, they are still desirable by those world creditors because they have large and solid Domestic Equity Market and humongous Market Capitalization. These are 2 things that Indonesia lacks off and does not have.

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Indonesia does have Domestic Equity Market and Market capitalization, but the amount is too insignificant compared to its massive debts, massive unemployment and the number of its citizen who are still living under poverty line.

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The issue of having massive debts for Indonesia does not end as long as those debts payment and deficit are still within safety ratio.  There are bigger and more agonizing problems than that.

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What are those problems that were not mentioned by Sri Mulyani during the interview?

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The 1st problem: Our debts are in US dollar and our currency is in Rupiah.

 

The loan repayments will INCREASE as the Rupiah continues to depreciate, make it much more challenging and difficult if not impossible TO PAY those massive debts OFF! This means that the ordinary people of Indonesia have to work MUCH and MUCH HARDER as tax payers to keep up with the increasing US currency.

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Ibarat mengejar hutang yang naik Bus, tapi kita mengejarnya pakai sepeda. Tidak akan bisa nyampek-nyampek, malah semakin hari semakin ketinggalan jauh.

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The loan amounts as time goes by are not getting smaller but even bigger. That translates the much longer time needed for Indonesia to be able to pay off its massive foreign and domestic debts if not for a generation to come. What a blunder!

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As one of those younger generations, I can not accept this reality and this is one of the reasons why I have been continuously confronting and raising this issue openly and publicly. I am challenging the current government and the parliament members to resolve this critical issue sooner than later. It is too important issue for the welfare of the Indonesia people at large!

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The 2nd problem: The Indonesia’s ability to pay these loans will DECLINE as the debt service ratio (DSR) has risen over the years from 33% in 1996 to 50% in 1998.  Even in 2008/2009 is still within 30%.

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The ability to repay these debts will depend on EXPORTS, and exports are greatly dependent on “demand and supply.”

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On the demand side, Indonesian market had about 64% in Asian region. But on the supply side, the real sector was very poor. This affects and will continue to affect the declining value of the Rupiah against other currencies, especially, the US currency. It is maybe catching up here and there, due to different reasons. But lack of supply in the real sector will minimize the ability of currency Rupiah to compete other currencies.

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Another issue is with virtually no significant ability from the Indonesian Government to stipulate domestic economy due to lack of funds because of these massive debts and monstrous Central Government spending which in 2008 absorb 77.88% of total APBN revenue, the trend continues and domestic consumption will have to be imported and thus eliminating the change for Indonesia in capturing its DOMESTIC EQUITY MARKET.

 

Double that with the Indonesian Government economic policies that has been primarily focusing on the macro-economy. The real sector was not only poor but significantly untouched! This factor alone translates the likelihood of declining and weakening the currency Rupiah against US Dollar and other currencies.

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With virtually no significant effort to capture much of the DOMESTIC EQUITY MARKET, it is only economic-formula that Indonesia will highly unlikely be able to establish bigger and broader MARKET CAPITALIZATION, one of the critical sectors that are needed to strengthen Rupiah currency.

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In the absence of these two significant sectors, Domestic Equity Market and Market capitalization, it is only common sense that the currency Rupiah will most likely will continue to decline and weaken. This is a double deep. That means the ability for Indonesia to pay off its massive debts will take much and much longer time, beyond imaginable. The issues are massive!

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Dengan kondisi ekonomi seperti ini, biar sampai elek ya nggak akan bisa melunasi hutang-hutang itu kalau kebijaksanaan pemerintahan selama ini hanya mengeluarkan long laundry list. It’s a pathetic reality that I can not bear to see it going much longer.

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Who is paying the price?

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No body else but those millions and millions ordinary poor Indonesian people who do not know the complexity of these massive debts, its ramification and the underlying issues facing the country. Because they are the one who will continue to suffer for many and many years to come unless this issue is resolved once and for all, sooner than later.

 

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It is a sad reality that with this bad economy, there is no sound Government economic policy; it is either non-existence or chaotic that is undertaken to remedy this issue in a country that is so rich with natural resources.

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The 3rd problem: “Because the required loan repayment is so large and so humongous, the potential and the funds needed to stipulate the economy are lacking”. What does it mean?

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That means as Indonesia is lacking of fund needed stipulate its domestic economy and to rebuild the broken infra structures due to her massive debts, this will make it impossible for Indonesia to improve its current condition. This condition triples already complicated the matters.

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It is high possibility that the condition will likely to get worse each year as we have seen for the last 30 years with its currency value unless dramatic economic policy is undertaken. At best, the current administration will only maintain status quo, the situation that has been unchanged for over 35 years. Will you accept this reality for the next 5 years?

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The 4th problem: Such an immense debt stock could exacerbate adverse public perception and false expectations (false hopes).

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This situation is just like a combustion chamber with high density, where a tiny spark can create an explosion burning the entire chamber, making Indonesia susceptible to external shock and turmoil. We have seen this happening in 1998.

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The Indonesian people expect too much from their leaders to make a significant change of their life from poverty and difficulties, which is understandable and they have every right to expect that from their leaders. It makes sense. But what are not being known and understood are how massive these debts really are and what impact it has to the Indonesian government’s ability to govern with such an immense debt stock.

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When those expectations do not arrive as hoped because it was false expectation and false hope at the first place anyway, people become anger and often times they express their anger toward other innocent people or minority who has nothing to do with the real issue as we have seen happening in 1998. These adverse public perceptions and false expectations are just like a combustion chamber that is ready to explode at any given time.

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Knowing how critical and dangerous the issue really is, it is beyond any reasonable doubt that Indonesia’s massive foreign and domestic debt is the most pressing issue facing Indonesia at this time and this shall be the number #1 issue and a top priority for President SBY, his cabinet members and the Parliament to address it.

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This is a clear danger just like ticking timed-bomb that must be resolved sooner than later. I can not say it any better and point it out this issue in much clear way than this to emphasize how critical the issues really are.

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It is time for all of Indonesia’s politicians, members of the Parliament, President and Vice President of Indonesia and all cabinet Ministers to rise up to tackle those big issues and deliver results to the Indonesian people and not empty promises. Now is the time for a change and I am taking the 1st step toward that direction. Maintaining status quo is just unacceptable proposition in such a critical time. We can do better and yes, we can! Because I believe that we are a capable nation!

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Inilah tantangan dan tanggung jawab terbesar bagi para pemimpim rakyat mulai dari President SBY, Wapres Boediono, Menkeu Sri Mulyani atau pengantinya, para Menteri Kabinet dan Wakil Rakyat di Parliamen dalam waktu 5 tahun kedepan (2009-2014).

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Hutang Indonesia 2010 update:

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Pemerintah Indonesia Tandatangani 20 Pinjaman Baru…! Wah.., modar deh!

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Utang Tahun 2010

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Link: Utang sudah besar, masih nambah lagi…?

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Utang Tahun 2011

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http://www.rimanews.com/read/20110405/22796/bpk-utang-subsidi-pemerintah-ke-5-bumn-senilai-rp66-triliun
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Gawat, Pemerintah Tak Hidupi Negara Ini Dengan Produktivitas, Tapi Dengan Menjual Aset Melalui Hutang
Senin, 4 Apr 2011 02:39 WIB

JAKARTA, RIMANEWS- Rezim pemerintahan SBY-Boediono kian hari kian diragukan kualitas dan keberpihakannya pada rakyat. Rezim ini dinilai hanya pandai melakukan manipulasi dan pencitraan agar nampak baik d hadapan publik.

Salamuddin Daeng dari Instite Global Justice (IGJ), menyoroti dua manipulasi yang telah dilakukan rezim SBY-Boediono. Pertama, manipulasi keuangan Negara untk mengisi kantong kekuasaan, dan kedua, manipulasi indicator kesejahteraan dalam rangka pencitraan politik.

Manipulasi keuangan negara dilakukan dengan memperbesar  keuangan pemerintah dengan cara mencetak surat hutang hingga mencapai USD 54,308 milyar (Rp 488,77 triliun).Selama 6 tahun terjadi peningkatan Surat Berharga Negara 156,40%. Inilah penyebab terjadi peningkatan devisa negara secara tajam , dimana 92,7% dari devisa USD 89,032 miliar pada Jan 2011, bersumber dari Surat Hutang.

Surat hutang tersebut digunakan untuk membiayai APBN (antara lain: gaji, stimulus keuangan dan perdagangan bagi PMA) dan membiayai impor,termasuk impor pangan yang marak dalam 6 tahun terakhir.Peningkatan APBN (2004-2010) terdapat peningkatan penerimaan Rp 452,27 triliun sebagian berasal dari penjualan surat berharga negara (Rp 488,77 triliun tsb diatas).

Pada saat yang sama penerimaan dari Sumber Daya Alam (SDA) mengalami penurunan. Jadi pemerintahan ini tidak menghidupkan negara dari produktivitas tapi dari menjual aset-aset negara melalui hutang.

Sementara pemenuhan kebutuhan dasar masyarakat dipasok dari sumber-sumber impor (16 komponen impor senilai 3,2 milyar USD). Akibat serangan produk-produk impor ini, maka pengangguran dan kemiskinan meningkat. Namun angka-angka kemiskinan dan pengangguran juga dimanipulasi. Indikator orang miskin diturunkan, yang seharusnya 2USD/hr/kapita sesuai standar Bank Dunia, menjadi Rp 7.200. Sementara orang bekerja 8 jam perhari (menurut UU) tetapi yang kerja 1 jam perminggu dianggap bukan penganggur.(ach)

http://www.rimanews.com/read/20110404/22595/gawat-pemerintah-tak-hidupi-negara-ini-dengan-produktivitas-tapi-dengan-menjual

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Debts swap dengan negara Jerman:

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Penghapusan hutang oleh Jerman

Posted in INDONESIA MASSIVE DEBTS.


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