KRISIS POLITIK DUNIA

Video: ISRAEL vs IRAN, The clock is ticking….

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Right after Senator Barrack Obama won the Presidency, I wrote a piece of article on January 10th, 2009 describing and predicting the situation leading to current crisis and future WAR between State of Israel and Islamic Republic of Iran, as follows:

Chris Komari Says:

January 10th, 2009 at 7:17 am

As far as the Israeli and Palestinian conflict is concerned, there will be no lasting peace agreement as long as the following conditions still exist:

1). USA and Israel are one united country. This makes US Government always bias and can never be an honest broker on Israel and Palestinian conflict.

2). U.S. President can never stay away from Israeli interest, as long as members of US Congress are filled by Israelis descent.

3). The landscape of US Congress will not change anytime soon as long as AIPAC is still there dominating influence on Senator election, Congress election and Presidential election in the US, the world media, the world Banks and top 500 Corporations.

4). As long as the United States of America (USA) is the only superpower in the world, the Israel and US Government will ignore the International laws. This condition is very detrimental to the world peace and security including those Israel and Palestinian conflict.

5). Every time there is a proposed peace deal or agreement between Israel and Palestinian brokered by the US, the concessions are always from the Palestinian side to give up this and that.

6). As long as United Nation continues to be unfair, unjust, un-unified and unfit Nations that can’t stand up and punish US and Israel’s violations of International Laws, there will no lasting PEACE in the world. UN is unfair world body, especially, for those small countries and those non-nuclear power countries. The UN needs to be dismantled and form another world body that are just and fair to all countries.

7). The settlements in the West Bank are there. The settlements were designed by the Israeli Government to expand territory and dismantling settlements in the West Bank is just political suicidal for any Israeli’s politicians. One of the top Israelis politicians said that the right of return and dismantling the settlement in the West Bank has passed the time from being a talking point. There is no way to undo those settlements. The settlements are too big and the sentiments are too widely rooted by those Jewish orthodox there that they have the right to occupy the land based on historical claim.

8). To protect their people, the Israelis government restricts and strangled movement of the millions Palestinians by putting many check-points and many roadblocks from North to South and from West to East making Gaza Strip the biggest prison in the world, making the West Bank a prisoner for Palestinians. This makes life in Gaza Strip and the West Bank is unbearable.

The argument that Hamas initiated or broke the 6 peace deal is just unjustified. This dire condition forces those Palestinian to fire rockets and send suicide bombers trying to break and change the condition on the ground. Anyone or a nation who lives under such a dire condition will do anything to break that condition. It is just a human nature. This cycle will continue as long as those conditions continue to exist. That’s why we can never hear those peace agreement last too long. This is only about condition on the ground.

How about the conditions inside the Palestinian’s people heart and mind? It doubled if not tripled the hatred to continue fighting.

9). All Muslims believe in this very well-known Prophecy:

”Time will pass when a Jew is hiding behind a mountain, the mountain will speak up, hey…here is a Jew behind me, go get him! When a Jew is hiding behind a tree, the tree will speak up, hey…there is a Jew behind me, go get him..!.”

This prophecy is well understood and embraced by majority Muslims worldwide that someday the Jewish people faith will turn from being the hunters to be the hunted ones severely around the world to a point that even mountains and trees dare to open up their mouth that Jews are hiding behind them. This prophecy is not hard to understand if you care to know and understand how the Israelis soldiers treat the Palestinian people.
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10). Greed, power grab and land grab have been historical nature of the Jewish people. They had been punished by God because of it, and it seems they continue taking the same path and destruction for their very own mischief. Look at what the world have viewed the State of Israel. There are more people and more countries around the world who dislike (or hate) the state of Israel’s International conducts and behaviors than those who love or support it. If their mischief continues just like what we have seen in the current war and the hatred continues, the repeated-destruction State of Israel is just a matter of time. Those Prophecies may come to fulfill sooner than later.

This does not suggest that I am anti Israel or anti Semitic in anyway. I am presenting historical facts. Will it become true or not? Only time will tell.

This condition can change dramatically once a US President dares to stand up against US Congress influence, AIPAC and order the Israelis Government to make all the needed concessions to the Palestinian to establish long lasting peace with a guarantee that the US and the rest of the world will guarantee the State of Israel security. Otherwise, the US will stop monetary and weapons support for Israelis.

I am not sure if there will be ever any President of the US who dares stand up against US Congress, AIPAC and Israel though. But this can and will force Israelis Government to make concession unless they are willing to lose billions of dollar aids.

There is no any other way for the Israelis to make long lasting peace agreement with the Palestinian. The hatred is too deep and the sentiment is too widely spread across the Arab nations. All what the Government of Israeli does is managing violence and resistance from the Palestinians to the point that is acceptable. That’s what they do with their super military force all of these years.

How long such a condition will last? Time will tell. But one thing for sure, the fight is yet to continue unless those conditions are eliminated.

In response to several comments, I further wrote the following on January 13th, 2009:

Chris Komari Says:

January 13th, 2009 at 4:59 a

The entire arguments do not change and even validate the fact that the existing conditions that I presented earlier do exist in this ongoing conflict between Israeli and Palestinian. Unless those conditions are removed, the cycle of violence in the West Bank and Gaza Strip is yet to continue.

State of Israel being that small country is the only country on Earth that receives billions and billions of dollar aids from the US Government since the inception of that country. In 2007, the amount of this aids have reached to $30 billion dollar in 10 years. That’s a lot of money for that tiny State. What is the political condition behind this unwavering financial and military support by the US Congress? That will establish the fact that USA and Israel is not the same as Indonesia and Malaysia. It is completely incomparable, just like orange and apple!

The Jewish people have gone through so many trials and tribulations from the time of Pharaoh in Egypt, King Nebuchadnezzar during the Babylonian Empire and then the Nazi Hitler in Germany. Those historical facts have thought us that the Jews at some point were hunted down for their very own mischief. It had happened repeatedly. Those repeated events or tragedies are undeniable historical facts. Will this phenomenon happen again to the Jewish people for the 4th times as Prophesied? Time will tell. We can only follow the current situation, understand the Zionist movements and predict the future.

There are 2 critical developments in the Middle East that worry so much the Jewish folks in the USA and in Israel at large. They believe that for the survival of State of Israel:

1). No Arab country shall be allowed to have the knowledge or the know how on Nuclear program.

2). No Arab country shall be allowed to have any Nuclear weapon.

President Bush worked hard to prevent these 2 things from happening during his administration. He failed as he was too wrapped up with the war in Iraq, Afghanistan and the failing economy at home. Now, the 1st condition has been surpassed by Iran and it is just a matter of time that Iran will eventually have a nuclear technology to enrich uranium in place in her country. Converting those nuclear programs to become a weapon of mass destruction is just a matter of political needs. Once it is there, no countries can deter Iran.

It is pretty smart move politically how President of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is dancing around with the USA and the International community to buy time. That’s all he needs and he seems accomplished that so far. He made President Bush 43 become the lamest of the lame duck President in his last term in office since he had no power to dictate Iran in this matter. Iran seems the biggest benefactor from all of these political developments.

The US Government, US Congress and Israeli lobbyists on the Hill have agreed and understood that for the survival of Israel State, the IMBALANCE POWER in the Middle East shall be maintained, in which State of Israel must have the upper hand over the entire Arab countries in terms of weapon technology, Nuclear technology and Military Forces. No Arab country shall be allowed to have the knowledge or the know how on Nuclear weapon.

That was why when Iran declaring that she has the needed technology to produce enriched uranium for energy, the reactions and the efforts from the US and Israel to destroy the nuclear reactors was very strong. There are continuing covert operation by the US Government to buy or take away all Iranian nuclear scientists from Iran to United States with guarantee of safety and prosperity.

When the Chief of Iran Nuclear Program showed off his nuclear program at Tehran University openly and publicly, he has a very specific purpose. It has come to pass that Iran indeed has the burning desire and knowledge to make Nuclear power putting Iran in the same club as Pakistan, North Korea and India. This is a new development that worries so much the Jewish people in the US and in the Middle East.

The second critical development is the current political condition in the USA with the victory of Senator Barrack Obama in capturing US Presidency and the Iran’s ability to keep enriching uranium. Without any significant ability by the US Government and the U.N to pressure Iran to halt her nuclear program, the State of Israel is getting nervous and nervous each day. The fact that Hamas and Hezbollah have the ability to attack Israel with longer and longer range of rockets, it disturbs much of the Israel politicians to protect its people safety and security.

Once a single Arab nation is allowed have and posses a Nuclear weapon, the balance power in the Middle East will dramatically be shifted and the chance for the State of Israel’s survival is getting smaller and smaller, unless she changes policy. The fact that President-Elect Obama is taking the path of Diplomacy with Iran; it gives Iran Government more time to drag their feet to keep enriching uranium. The clock is ticking and Israel is not happy with the direction going.

But the path to lasting peace and security is still wide open. Not only the US and Israel have to work thing out. The whole world has to take part on this issue. But again and again, the arrogant and mischief committed by the Jewish State with the support of United States of America turn the world away from undertaking the task to resolve this conflict. To some, U.S. foreign policies are too biased, especially, leaning toward Israel’s interest at all times. To some, conflict between Israel and Palestinian is more of religious conflict than territorial one rooted for hundreds years. Only divine hand can resolve this issue. Let them kill each other, that is what they want! These are some of the attitudes and sentiments out there.

Not only the nation of Israel has the right to exist, every nation on Earth has the right to exist. The question is how one nation shall exist? For the continuing survival of State of Israel, Diplomacy shall be the path to take. War and destruction can only deepen the hatred. From watching the current nuclear program in Iran and other Islamic countries worldwide, Israeli’s change of survival is slimmer and slimmer. I am afraid that the prophecies are yet to fulfill in our lifetime. The world leaders need to take on a different path to save the Middle East from any nuclear disaster.

Everyone has every right to discuss on anything and present ideas on any issue at any given time. The fact that the conflict between Israel and Palestinian continues for all of these years, it establishes the fact that up to today, there is no idea that is good enough to resolve the issue. For anyone who thinks otherwise is fooling no body but herself/himself.

In response to further comments, I again wrote some responses as follows on January 18th, 2009:

Chris Komari Says:

January 18th, 2009 at 6:49 am

It is not that simple. The enormity and complexity of the issue is beyond our imagination. Let’s not forget many other critical facts in this conflict.

Two States solution is impossible proposition.Why?

During the last term of President Clinton administration, then the Palestinian leader the late Chairman Yasser Arafat and Former Prime Minister of Israel Ehud Barak was so close to seal the peace agreement at Camp David. Both sides were willing to make some concessions. Chairman Arafat was willing to abandon the demand for the right of return in lieu of getting the pre-1967 war territory back as long as all the settlements in GAZA and the West Bank are removed.

But what was the other sticking points that derailed the peace agreement from being sealed at Camp David? Then Prime Minister Ehud Barak with the full backing of United States Government was eager to make the needed concessions demanded by the Palestinian side in lieu for lasting peace and security of the State of Israel, except…..

1). Israel insisted the right to control the AIR SPACE over the Palestinian territory even when a Palestinian State is established for the continuing safety the State of Israel.

2). Israel insisted the right to control all AIRPORTS for the same reason. Any incoming Aircraft must be verified, scrutinized and subject to the State of Israel’s approval before landing.

3). Israel insisted the right to control SEA PORTS and SEA PATROL. Any incoming SHIPS to GAZA must be verified by Israel Defense Force and subject to Israel’s approval.

4). Israel insisted THE RIGHT to maintain the CHECK POINTS and BLOCKADES on certain areas for the same reason which is to protect the citizen of Israel from future rocket attacks and suicide bombers until the Palestinian Government and their Police and Arm Forces are established and capable of GUARANTEEING COMPLETE PEACE and SECURITY FOR ISRAEL by fighting terrorism.

The issue is so complex. At that time, the State of Israel seemed eager and willing to give up the territory and dismantle of the entire settlements in Gaza and the West Bank as long as there was a guarantee of complete and lasting peace and security.

But knowing the sentiment of the Palestinian people and the entire Arab nations in general toward the Jewish people in Israel, State of Israel does not want to see the Air Space, Airports and Sea Ports are used to pile up guns, weapons and ammunition to strike Israel when the time is right by these radical organizations. Those were the fear and still are till today.

With so many blockades and checkpoints across the territory, these radical fighters are able to bring in rockets, guns and ammunition. Imagine if the entire regions are wide open for those radical fighters to bring in and pile up more long range rockets. The security of State of Israel is in complete Jeopardy. Those are the reasons behind the demand by the State of Israel to maintain control for the Air Space, Airports, Sea Ports and Land.

Now what was left in it for Chairman Arafat?

For the late Chairman Arafat, accepting such a peace deal is like having a country with no right of sovereignty; against his own mission and PLO mission; definitely political suicidal for him knowing the sentiment at home, especially, within his own radical fighters from internal Fatah Movement, Hamas, Hezbullah and the backing countries across the Arab nations. I did not surprise, he denied and rejected the proposal. It did not give Chairman Arafat any breathing room to defend his position at home and in the Arab world by accepting such a peace deal. That is critical for any Palestinian leader to survive. This is something that the State of Israel and US Government did not see.

That is why in my view, two States solution is IMPOSSIBLE! The only possible solution is ONE STATE solution. That seems unimaginable to say this, let alone of suggesting such an idea to resolve Middle East ongoing conflict.

ONE STATE solution, is it possible?

Let’s look at ONE STATE solution option and what might have to happen.Who is going to occupy the land, the Jews or the Palestinians?

If you look at what has been happening in the Middle East all of these years; the conflict between Israel and Palestinian is in many ways have been ONE STATE rule, where the State of Israel rules the Palestinian people and its territories. This is the face of the ONE STATE rule under Israelis’ control. It is not pretty and the conflict continues. What has not yet happened is the ONE STATE solution under Palestinian control. How this phenomena might and has to happen? Will it possible for Palestinian to rule over the Jewish State? What has to happen first before this phenomena to take place?

This is a new phenomena that has yet to come. For the State of Israel to give up power is impossible. A bloody war with nuclear weapons might have to take place in the Middle East. This is what scares the heck out of the world. Unfortunately, this might have to happen according to the prophesies for the world new order has to take place. This is where Iran plays its critical role in the Middle East. The phenomena is only this.

The survival of the State of Israel only depends on their ability with the help of USA to maintain the IMBALANCE power in the Middle East where State of Israel has the upper hand over its military forces, weapons and technology over the Arab nations. Once the balance power is changed and shifted with Iran’s ability to have nuclear weapons, the survival of State of Israel is numbered! Now that Iran has the know how to build nuclear plants; has the ability to enrich uranium, owning nuclear weapons is matter of time, it is a matter of political needs.

Once Iran declares to having nuclear weapons in her disposal, no country can deter Iran and the clock is ticking. The new world order is to take place sooner than later after that point. That is why what is happening in Iran will determine the peace process in the Middle East; will influence the peace process between Israel and Palestinian.

US Government can never be an honest and even handed peace deal broker in this conflict. The world knows that and the American people know that. With this level of distrust and fear from the Israelis side toward the Palestinian people and vise versa, one can only wonder if any lasting peace agreement in the land of Palestine will ever be reached.

At the end, I sent out a response on January 19th, 2009 to conclude my writings and to end my public debates on Israelis and Palestinian conflicts as follows:

Chris Komari Says:

January 19th, 2009 at 7:59 am

When it comes to profanity, nothing in those words is new nor surprises us at all. We the people in the US especially, in Berkeley and Oakland have done it, used it and heard them all. When it comes to public disobedience and protest against injustices, you may have just witnessed what happened down there in Oakland. We have done it and seen them all.

The conflict in Palestine will dramatically change sooner than later. The clock is ticking. This line was used by Senator John Kerry to question Senator Hillary Clinton during her confirmation hearing to be the next Secretary of State in regard to Iran’s ability to continue enriching uranium.

With worsening US economy at home and the debacle in Iraq, I don’t see the possibility for President Obama administration to lead the country to attack Iran to halt their nuclear ambition. He will not get support from the American people and I don’t think he himself wants to do it either. His middle name is still Hussein?

If his administration is taking the path of diplomacy with Iran, then Iran will have the needed time to drag their feet to keep enriching uranium. This odd and the current US political direction are against Israel’s interest. As soon as an Arab nation claims to have a nuclear weapon, it will lead to a dramatic change in political landscape in the Middle East.

In January 2004 Mr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, the founder of Pakistan’ nuclear program confessed to having involved in a clandestine international network of nuclear weapons technology proliferation from Pakistan to Libya, Iran and North Korea.

Mr. Khan is also known to be the first Muslims nuclear scientist who wants to create Muslim’s bombs. His ambitions can be traced with his attempts to help many Muslim’s countries around the world. The fact his network has spread around the world, the knowledge of building a nuclear power plant have been known and shared worldwide within the Islamic and non-Islamic countries, such as: Iran, Libya, Syria and North Korea. It is just a matter of time that sooner or later, there will be another Muslim country, other than Pakistan who will claim to have nuclear weapons.

The Muslims claim that all Muslims; regardless of their skin differences are brother to each other. With that in mind, I can understand why Mr. Khan so eagerly wants to help other Muslim countries to build nuclear programs. That is what his clandestine network of nuclear technology proliferation in the Middle East. He wants to help his Muslim brothers there. It makes sense.

If Iran posses a nuclear weapon, Saudi Arabia will be the next country to demand nuclear weapon and Syria will follow. The neighboring countries like Iraq and Jordan may have to demand to have one as well for their national security. If all of those Arab nations have nuclear weapons, what is left for the State of Israel but taking the path of diplomacy? But it will too late by then. The Arab nations will have enough nuclear power to challenge Israel. Now it’s the time for State of Israel to change course, change attitude and change policy toward the Palestinian people. I doubt that she will do it. Either way, the odd is not good for the survival of State of Israel in the long run.

This is why there are so many rumors floating around in the Jewish community to take on Iran’s nuclear facilities sooner than later. The problem is Iran has so many hidden nuclear facilities. A desperate measure to attack Iran is under consideration. Israel wants United States to take on Iran, but internal US political condition does not support this effort. Israel is left on her own to take on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Attacking Iran in this fragile and volatile time can be a fatal and political backlash. But inaction is very detrimental to the survival of State of Israel in the long run. The clock is ticking and the direction going is detrimental to the interest of the State of Israel. The next 4 years is the critical time to see Iran’s nuclear developments.

Allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon is not good for Israel. Hamas’s ability to keep piling and firing up longer and longer rockets to Israel is another issue. Hezbollah’s ability to counter attack Israel Defense Forces was a setback to overcome. Managing over 1.5 million Palestinian people in Gaza and over 2.5 millions on the West Bank are also an issue for Israel to worry. Those populations are growing overwhelmed the Israelis population. Continuing the war and pre-emptive actions drew condemnation worldwide and deepen the hatred in the street of Arab nations. As long as those Arab nations hate the Jews, how can Israelis expect peace and security in the land of Palestine?

I do not wish the destruction of State of Israel as much as I don’t want to see the killings and atrocities toward the Palestinian people. Every nation has the right to exist and enjoy a peaceful life. Again, the fulfillment of that Prophecy is yet to be seen.

So, what is happening now?

The current Iran’s nuclear development after President Obama’s speech at United Nation and G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh, PA September 24/25, 2009:

President Obama and the leaders of France and Britain blasted Iran’s construction of a previously unacknowledged uranium enrichment facility and demanded that Tehran immediately fulfill its obligations under international law or risk the imposition of harsh new sanctions.

Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman told Israel Radio on Saturday, he said: “the new under-construction nuclear enrichment facility in Iran proved that the country was seeking nuclear weapons and called on countries to give an unequivocal response.”

However, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the plant was perfectly legal and open to inspection by the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

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“According to IAEA rules, countries must inform the agency 6 months ahead of the gas injection in their uranium enrichment plants. We have done it 18 months ahead and this should be appreciated not condemned,” the Iranian president said.

Iran has been under the United Nations nuclear watch dog since February 2003. Three years later, having rejected the West’s demands to abandon its program in exchange for incentives, Iran faced the prospect of the IAEA referring the nation to the UN Security Council for sanctions.

Iran also insisted that why they are being singled out when Israel has never complied with IAEA regulations never allowed any inspections and never told anyone what their nuclear program is. While it is well known that they have developed the dreaded bomb, nothing is officially known about how many bombs they have and the destructive capacity of their program. Who is being unfair and biased?

As noted by Colonel Gaddafi, President of Libya in a BBC program, either the Middle East should be totally free of nuclear bombs or if one Nation is allowed to have them, that possession should be balanced by allowing another Nation, especially an adversarial one, to have them. Neither Israel nor the other nation (in this case Iran) will be likely to use them in that event. At least there will be less chances of that happening unless both nations have a death wish to destroy themselves and others around them.

Israel has not agreed or complied with to any of the resolutions passed by the United Nations in relation to the Middle East conflict. Yet, the West insists on other nations complying with them while allowing Israel to violate them to their hearts content.

The Middle East will not have peace unless and until all Nations there, including Palestine and Israel, are treated equally. Such equality will need compromises from all sides, if peace is to be found. Israel must become a respecter of international law and United Nations resolutions, if they and their backers want countries like Iran to do the same. Biased treatment will only harden the attitudes of those people who are already hard, and it will make it difficult for nations that are trying to tread softly to continue doing so.

It seems that it is the West that is fanning the fires of Middle East conflict. The likes of Colonel Gaddafi, who could play a pivotal role in bringing about a solution have never been engaged by the West, and instead they get the likes of Tony Blair, who knows nothing about the conflict from a Middle Eastern point of view to become brokers, to make sure the process will fail, as it could well be in the commercial interest of the West to keep these fires burning.

Could Iran be heading toward a military showdown with the United States or, possibly Israel, America’s close ally? What alliances does Iran have with other countries that could threaten Western interests? And what effect will Iran’s re-elected president, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, have in today’s nuclear stand-off?

IRAN is preparing for Battle

Many Iran’s leaders believe that regardless of what they do, they see a fight coming. They expect the “Iraqization of the Iran dossier” or, in other words, the eventual presentation by the White House of the same plan for Iran as in Iraq. (For example, similar to the months before the war with Iraq, the White House would proclaim that Iran is in possession of weapons of mass destruction and is governed by a tyrannical, anti-democratic regime).

Iran’s leaders understand this possible tactic used to attack Iran and so, they are getting ready for the battle since September 2005.

In a speech given September 2005, during an annual parade of troops, ballistic missiles and other military hardware President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad issued a warning of what would happen if anyone considered and carried out an attack against the Islamic Republic. He stated that Iran’s “enemies have understood that we are very serious in defending our security.” Attacking Iran is madness.

If some want to again test what they have tested before, the flame of the Iranian nation will be very destructive and fiery. Relying on our nation and armed forces, we will make the aggressor regret their actions.” Further, Iran’s president told the army to “prepare their defensive readiness” and called for an “expansion of the defense industries and the utilization of the latest technology” (News24).

These are strong words, but they do have a ring of truth to them. According to a professor of national security strategy at the U.S. National War College, Iran is capable of retaliating with “an elaborate, ferocious, global provocation designed to draw the United States into a protracted conflict.” (Or, in other words, more terrorist attacks against America and an escalation of violence in Iraq.) Iraq’s Deputy Foreign Minister added, “If Iran wanted, it could make Iraq a [nightmare] for the United States” (The Sunday Telegraph).

Why Iran is so gung-ho and defiance against U.S. pressure and the world? Unlike Iraq, Iran has many venerable military assets and A’s Cards to play from which to draw in the event of an attack:

1). Iran has developed and upgraded Shihab-3 and Shigab-4 missiles that have ranges of roughly 1,250 miles, capable of reaching Israel and U.S. forces in the region.

2). Iran can pretty much shut down the strait of Hormuz where its width is not more than 400 miles with booby traps, stinger and their short range and long range missiles to prevent any OIL flow from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, Qatar and United Arab Emirates to the west.

What would happen with OIL price in America and the world if those oil shipments from the Middle East are completely shut down? The price will be going up through the roof reaching $200 dollar per barrel or more. Chaos in the world is one thing for sure for the lack of OIL supply.

3). If shutting down Strait of Hormuz is not possible for Iran to prevent the OIL flow to the western countries, as stated publicly Iran will not hesitate to undertake direct attack to all OIL production facilities in the Middle East using their short range and long range missiles to guarantee that there will be no OIL shipment from the Middle East.

All OIL producing countries in the Middle East such as: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, Qatar and United Arab Emirates are within their missiles reach. Now we know and understand what does it mean when President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stated that attacking Iran is madness?

4). Iran has massed production thousands and thousands of booby traps, stingers, short and long range missiles and other weapons. One of the Iran’s Army General stated publicly that if Iran is attacked, their army personnel are ready to fire 11,000 thousands missile within minutes after being attacked to all Iran’s enemies in the region.

4). The construction and set-up of sophisticated defenses around its nuclear facilities.

5). Possible possession (from Ukraine) of a dozen Soviet-era Kh-55 cruise missiles, designed to carry a 200-kiloton nuclear warhead 1,860 miles, virtually undetectable by radar; a recent satellite deal with the Russians would supply digital maps for improved accuracy.

6). Possible stockpile of sophisticated military equipment such as armor-piercing sniper rifles and night-vision goggles.

7). In addition, Iranian hardliners have assembled a list of 15,000 suicide bomber volunteers. If seeing suicide bombers in Iraq, Palestine, Afghanistan and Pakistan are sickening enough, imagine these 15,000 suicide brigade volunteers from Iran taking action.

It is code to America: “If you hit us, we will play dirty, using Hezbollah and volunteers to hit the U.S. across the region,” said a European diplomat, echoing analysts who have warned that Iran could easily destabilize Iraq and close the Strait of Hormuz to oil traffic. “There is an enormous danger of miscalculation.”

8). Iran has the largest army in the region, with 540,000 active-duty troops and 350,000 in reserves, plus more than 1,600 battle tanks and 1,500 other armored vehicles.

A veteran Mid-east military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington wrote, “There is considerable evidence that Iran is developing both a long-range missile force and a range of weapons of mass destruction” in their effort to gear up for the foreseeable future battle in the region.

9). Iran has stated openly that if attacked, Iran will launch as many missiles as they can to attack Israel from all corner of the Earth, perhaps by utilizing Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the West Bank.

10). With Mustada Al Sadr in Iraq and his biggest Mahdi Army that is supported by Iran militarily and financially, we can expect that his armies can inflict severe damages to U.S and other Western’s interest in IRAQ. The possibility can be blowing up all OIL wells and shutting down completely any OIL production in Iraq.

11). State of Israel alone will not dare to attack Iran because of the dire consequences. This attack will not only unite the Iranian people but the entire Arab countries. Iran, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and Hamas have been waiting for this attack to occur. There is even a rumor that Iran wants to be attacked by Israel in order for Arab nations to attack Israel simultaneously.

12). Russia is the sticking point. Moscow has signed $1 billion worth of missile with Iran in 2005 to send Tor-M1 missile system to Iran over 2 years. Tor-M1 system could identity up to 48 targets and fire at two targets simultaneously at height of up to 20,000 feet. This is a threat to Israel and U.S air force to undertake lower flight to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The deal includes 250 long-range Su-30 fighters, a two-seat warplane that has, in the words of Jerusalem Post, “a wide range of combat capabilities and is used for air patrol, air defense, ground attacks, enemy air defense suppression and air-to-air combat.” It has a maximum range of 3,000 km, but Tehran also plans to purchase refueling tankers that will increase its range to 8,000 km.

13). Iran has surface-to-air missile S-200. However, in March 2009 Iran has sought to purchase the sophisticated surface-to-air missiles S-300 from Russia to counter a potential Israeli air strike on its nuclear facilities. Even though, the purchase was not materialized and put on hold by Russia to play politic with Washington, Russia can release these missiles to Iran at any time.

14). Tehran, Iran has signed a deal with China to purchase 24 J-10 fighter jets developed with Israeli technology in 2007. The new arms agreement inked between Iran and China is estimated at a cost of about $1 billion, with deliveries of the 24 jets expected between 2008 and 2010 as a replacement for Iran’s current MiG-29 jets.

15). Iran also is developing ballistic missiles that could carry a nuclear warhead. A U.S. intelligence assessment in May, however, said Iran had slowed work on its long-range ballistic missiles and was instead focusing efforts on short- and medium-range missiles like the Shahab. Iran is not expected to have such a missile until 2015 to 2020, according to the report, which was described by a U.S. government official on condition of anonymity because the report is classified.

The danger here is that many Iranian’s scientists have understood and experienced in developing ballistic missiles technology with the help of over 350 Russian’s scientists in IRAN. It is not IF but it is a matter of when IRAN will eventually have ballistic missiles carrying warheads. This also establishes the fact that it is highly unlikely that RUSSIA will give up its investments in Iran due to US and Western’s pressure.

16). Iran’s short ranger missiles such as: Fateh, Tondar and Zelzal missiles, which have a range of 120 miles (193 kilometers), 93 miles (150 kilometers) and 130 miles (200 kilometers) respectively.

17). Iran has massed produce other short range missiles that have been upgraded and tested recently, Shahab-1 and Shahab-2 missiles, with ranges of 185 miles (300 kilometers) and 435 miles (700 kilometers) respectively.

18). Iran has developed advanced surface-to-surface missiles called Sajjil-2 missile and is powered entirely by solid-fuel while the older Shahab-3 uses a combination of solid and liquid fuel in its most advanced form, which is also known as the Qadr-F1. Solid fuel is seen as a technological breakthrough for any missile program as solid fuel increases the accuracy of missiles in reaching targets.

Experts say Sajjil-2 is more accurate than Shahab missiles and its navigation system is more advanced.

19). North Korea earns over US$2 billion annually in arms deals with Iran, according to Larry Niksch, a specialist in Asian affairs with the U.S. Congressional Research Service. Scientists and engineers as well as missiles, missile parts and technical drawings for missiles are being transferred by air between the North and Iran, he claimed, adding flights between Pyongyang and Tehran should be a key target for sanctions against the North.

It shows that Iran has been positioning and gearing up for war all of these times.

Geo-Strategic Triangle

With the U.S. having a massive military presence around the world, many countries have developed a unilateral superpower phobia. This fear is causing tremendous changes in the realm of geopolitics, such as the formation of a triangular alliance between Russia, China and Iran. Such an alliance not only helps their economies, but it also serves to counter American military dominance.

The three countries have more in common than one might think. They are geographic neighbors; they are experiencing economic upturns; they are able to act swiftly; and, above all else, they hold much disdain for America. Moscow still sees Washington as adversary rather than a close friend. In addition, Russia possesses weapons and technology that Iran and China lack, but are more than willing to spend money to acquire them. A natural supply-and-demand partnership is taking shape.

Beijing’s interest in relations with Iran is due in part to China’s soaring energy consumption. For example, its crude oil imports soared 40 percent in the first eight months of 2005. Oil analysts have said that China could deplete its domestic oil supply in 14 years.

In turn, Iran is becoming China’s major importer of manufactured goods, such as computer systems, household appliances and cars. Iran’s former representative to the IAEA stated, “We mutually complement each other. They have industry and we have energy resources” (The Washington Post).

In 2004, China became Iran’s top oil importer, signing a $100 billion mega oil-pipeline deal with Tehran, coined the “deal of the century” by various commentators. A similar agreement is being worked on that is reported to be worth an additional $100 billion. That March, a state-owned oil trading company in China signed a 25-year agreement to import 110 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Iran. Later that year, a deal was struck for China to import an additional 250 million tons of LNG and 150,000 barrels per day of crude oil over the same 25-year period.

Along with these momentous deals, China is investing sizeable amounts of money in Iranian energy exploration, drilling and production, as well as petrochemical and natural gas infrastructure. Such transactions violate America’s Iran-Libya Sanctions Act, which penalizes companies for investing more than $20 million dollars in Iran or Libya. Apparently, what the U.S. thinks is of no concern to Beijing or Tehran.

Since the mid-1980s, Russia has been supplying Iran with advanced missiles and missile technology, and has been assisting in the development of long-range ballistics. With this assistance, Iran has developed Shihab-3 and Shigab-4 missiles that have ranges of roughly 1,250 miles. A Russian defense company is negotiating a deal with Iran to repair and modernize Iranian submarines as well, said to be “a $270 million dollar deal that could revive the bilateral arms trade [between Russia and Iran] but further irritate the United States” (St. Petersburg Times; emphasis ours).

Sales of missile technology breach the U.S.-Iran Non-Proliferation Act of 2000, which states that sanctions will be “imposed on countries whose companies provide assistance to Iran in its efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction and missile delivery systems.” So far, Washington has failed to enforce this act.

In early 2005, Russia signed a deal in which they will supply Iran with nuclear fuel for use at its nuclear power plant in Bushehr. (Russia has expressed interest in the construction of 6 more nuclear reactors and 20 nuclear power plants as well.) In return, to ease U.S. concerns that Iran will use the spent fuel to manufacture weapons-grade plutonium, Russia has promised that all spent nuclear fuel will be returned to them. Whether this actually takes place remains to be seen.

Along with economic development, trade and investment, this triangular alliance also brings foreign policies with mutual objectives. For instance, all three countries agree on policies toward Taiwan and Chechnya, with which the U.S. naturally disagrees. China and Iran are in full support of Russia’s war against the Chechen separatists, and Russia and Iran fully support China’s anti-succession stance toward Taiwan.

When it comes to the nuclear stand-off at hand, it should not be a surprise to learn that Russia and China pledge their full support of Iran. Moscow has consistently stated that it will not support referring Iran to the UN Security Council for sanctions; in addition, after striking the gas and oil deal with Tehran, Beijing stated that it would not support sanctions. Again, such opposition is significant due to both countries holding UN Security Council veto power. It is doubtful that countries with great economic interests in Iran will agree to impose burdens that will affect them as well even though recently, Russia seems to change its stand toward Iran’s nuclear ambition.

Understand Russia and China do not base their foreign policy on what the United States or any other nation of the West may want. Quite the contrary, they seek to undermine the West’s ambitions.

Pushing sanctions against Iran does not serve the purpose if not detrimental to the U.S. own interest abroad for several reasons:

(1). Trade between these two nations (China and Iran) is weakening the impact of American economic embargoes against Iran. A leading conservative theorist and editor of the Kayhan newspapers said, “Sanctions are not effective nowadays because we have many options in secondary markets, like China” (The Washington Post).

(2). Iran has been undergoing economic embargo for over 30 years from the day one of the inception of this country after Islamic revolution in 1979. If North Korea can survive economic embargo by the US and the World, it is too easy for Iran to find away to circumvent that embargo. Iran is too rich with oil and has too many friends around the world and neighbors that have similar faith and interest to defy that embargo.

(3) With dangerously high crude oil prices, Iran; a major oil exporter, could withhold its oil supply, thus driving the price up farther. Most countries understand this threat, and would be against imposing any sanctions that could threaten their own economies. The head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned, “Any sanction against Iran can make the oil price reach $200 a barrel” (News24).

(4) Any UN resolution calling for sanctions must be approved by all five members of the Security Council. This is not an easy task, as two of the five members are Russia and China.

(5) Iran has reinforced its position in Latin America by signing agreement and greater cooperation in military and trade agreement with Venezuela and Cuba to oppose imperialism and oppression in the third world countries. This includes shutting down OIL export to the U.S and its western allies in the case of WAR break out to show solidarity with Iran.

This will reinforce that economic sanction against Iran will never ever work. Iran is too valuable partner to be abandoned by some countries. That is why Iran is not afraid and laughs at the threat of economic sanctions.

So, what are the options for the U.S. and the world to persuade Iran from obtaining nuclear weapon?

There is only one of option that is DIPLOMACY and Diplomacy is less wanted by Israel for the U.S toward Iran.

Sanctions and WARS will for sure make things worse. For diplomacy to work, the U.S and the world, especially, State of Israel must change course and attitude toward Iran and the people of Palestinian. The conflict between Israel and Palestinian must be resolved.

The right of the Palestinian people to return to their homeland and to have their own States and living with dignity just like other nations must be established, which is in my view highly unlikely for State of Israel will ever do that knowing how the Jewish States has been behaving toward Palestinian people for the last 65 years.

State of Israel will never agree for a creation of Palestinian State that have their own military personnel, air forces and military combat that control Air space, airport, seaport. What is left for Palestinian people to defend their sovereignty? With this kind of attitude, the peace deal in Palestine is almost impossible.

So, what will happen then?

The conflict between Palestinian and Israel will continue. Iran will insist that having a nuclear technology is a right of every nation and Iran will continue to demand such a right. State of Israel, United States and its allies; Britain, Germany, and France will continue to insist that Tehran’s nuclear program is a guise for developing nuclear weapons. The world will try to corner Iran to give up its nuclear ambition with whatever means they can.

But the world does not realize that Iran is an Islamic Republic where their leaders are religious clerics who care more about obtaining righteous death than surrendering their will toward western’s demands and threats. Giving up their nuclear ambition as a key of winning the battle over Israeli’s domination in the Arab world is unlikely.

Even without the back up from Russia and China, Iran is not going to back down from having a nuclear technology in their home country to enrich uranium for whatever reason they can come up with to get that right. This is a no-bargain issue and a case-closed for Iran with whatever consequences lay ahead against the world pressure! Iran does not care!

For the State of Israel, letting Iran to have nuclear weapon is not going to make their life easier in the long run. The threat is too great for the survival of the State of Israel. But attacking Iran now can be very dangerous if not suicidal to face the anger from the entire Arab nations, inviting Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and Hamas to attack Israel and possibly, facing 11,000 rockets and missiles attack and possibly 15,000 suicide brigade volunteers from Iran that are ready to strike at any given time.

For Iran, being attacked by Israel is far better than being attacked by United States and its allies. The sentiment by the Iranian people and the Arab world in general toward Israelis will unite them in the event of an attack. That is what they want and looking for.

Looking at the attitude of Jewish State toward the Arab for the last 65 years and U.S role in the world, it is unfortunate that the nuclear saga with Iran will lead to violence in some fashion, whether all-out war or terrorist activities. Exactly how this plays out and to what degree remains to be seen for the next few years.

Who is President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad?

Mahmoud Ahmedinejad was born to a working class family in 1956. He was brought up in a Tehran district known for its poverty, which was an ideal area for Muslim fundamentalism to flourish. No stranger to higher education, in 1975, he founded a university engineering course at Elmo-Sanaat University. Four years later, he established the Islamic Student Association and became the university representative in the Office for Strengthening Unity between Universities and the Theological Seminaries (OSU). Interestingly, in 1979, this organization led the seizure of the American Embassy in Iran.

In 1980, Mr. Ahmedinejad joined the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRG), and later worked for the Internal Security Department. Six years later, he was promoted to a position leading the Special Brigade of the Revolutionary Guards at the Ramazan garrison, which is near Iran’s border with Iraq. This was the headquarters of the IRG’s international military operations. While stationed at the Ramazan garrison, Mr. Ahmedinejad reportedly established an elite assassination squad known as Quds Force, which is still active in Iraq.

After becoming the mayor of Tehran, it is reported that he used his new position to cultivate a network of young Islamic fundamentalists, known as Abadgaran-e Iran-e Islami, which works alongside Iran’s secret services and the IRG. This group promotes a hard-line conservative religious and political outlook and seeks to preserve the legacy of Iran’s first Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khomeini.

In June 2005, he won a landslide victory in Iran’s ninth presidential election, sending political shockwaves throughout the world. He clearly stated on his ticket that justice and freedom stand in contradiction, and that he stands on the side of justice. His hostility to “the corrupt Western way of life” is most apparent and is firmly entrenched in his past. One of his supporters echoed this sentiment, saying, “I picked Ahmedinejad to slap America in the face” (The Washington Times).

A day after his victory, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad proclaimed that he would pursue a moderate line; however, in light of his past, it is much more likely that he will stick to his ultra-conservative roots, in contrast to the former president of Iran. His vision of Islam is expected to shape Iranian foreign policy. If he fails to deliver on his promises to eliminate corruption, ensure greater employment and raise the living standards of the poor, he will likely try to focus his supporters’ attention on hot-button international issues, such as the Palestine/Israel conflict and the ongoing nuclear stand-off with the West. He precisely did just that even until today!

Iran’s political calculation

In the event of the WAR break out in the Middle East, Iran for certain will attack Israel severely with all those missiles they have. This attack will make Israel angry and retaliates Iran’s attacks more and more with any mean possible including nuclear attacks. For tiny country like the State of Israel, the only way to stop Iran’s attacks is nothing but by using their nuclear weapons to punish Iran.

What will happen then in the Middle-East? It will be chaos and turmoil across the Middle East and the world if not possibly the starting of World War III.

What is Iran’s political calculation to risk all of these?

Israel’s action will show and prove to the world that Israel does have nuclear weapons of mass destruction. This action will pave a way for the entire ARAB countries to demand their right to have nuclear technology in their home countries because Israel (their neighbor) does have nuclear weapons.

The world will have no excuse to deny the ARAB countries to have nuclear weapons. Israel’s ambiguity policy on her nuclear possession will no longer stand or applied. That is why Iran does want to have a nuclear weapon in their hand. That will make things easier for Iran to confront Israel and change the geo-political in the Middle East.

This is Iran’s political calculation. Either way, losing the battle or winning the WAR against Israel, Iran’s worse calculation will establish the path of changing geo-political in the Middle East to eliminate Israel off the map and much of Israel dominance militarily.

From the outset, the establishment of Jewish State Israel in the heart of the Middle East is wrong according to President Ahmadinejad. The holocaust occurred in Europe but why the Palestinian people has to pay the price for it? Why not European countries pay the price for the atrocities they committed.

This is one Iran’s political calculation to undo the mess in the Middle East with Israel. Unfortunately, to achieve this Iran’s leaders seem ready to sacrifice their people and everything they have to help their Palestinian brethren who have been suffering under Israel’s occupation for the last 65 years. Is this a religious duty or simply, political ambition? You decide!

We all can witness what would happen for the next few years between the State of Israel, United States and Islamic Republic of Iran. The next few years are very critical time for the world new order to take place if that is ever going to happen in this 21st century. Is it for better or worse for humanity? Only time will tell.

Below are some links to video related issue and to know more about President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s mind on certain issues during public debate at Columbia University: